Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano — Saturday, 23 May 2026 | AI Football Prediction

The model gives Alaves a modest 44% win probability because while their shot accuracy is above average, Rayo Vallecano's on-target shots per match are notably strong, which significantly reduces the home side's advantage. Additionally, although Alaves benefits from decent corner frequency at home, these factors combined are only moderately favorable, explaining why the draw and away win probabilities remain competitive at 27% and 28% respectively.

Low confidence - this is a very close matchup with multiple possible outcomes.