Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal — Sunday, 17 May 2026 | AI Football Prediction

# Statistical Analysis of Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Probabilities The model assigns Rayo Vallecano a 41% win probability primarily because Villarreal's Elo rating advantage and their superior shot accuracy on target create meaningful away-team strength that reduces the home team's winning chances to below 50%. However, Rayo Vallecano's strong possession control at home provides them with enough offsetting advantage to maintain a competitive 41% win probability rather than falling further behind, with the remaining probability distributed between a 31% away victory for Villarreal and a 28% draw outcome.

Low confidence - this is a very close matchup with multiple possible outcomes.