← World Cup 2026
FIFA World Cup 2026
Group Stage - 3
Thursday, 25 June 2026 at 23:00Arrowhead Stadium
Tunisia

Tunisia

Elo Rating: 1710
VS
Netherlands

Netherlands

Elo Rating: 1905
Win Probability
20%
Home Win
17%
Draw
63%
Away Win
Predicted: Away Win
Confidence: MEDIUM

Key Factors

  • 1Significant Elo advantage for Netherlands (+195 pts)
  • 2Netherlands is a top-10 ranked nation
  • 3Limited H2H history between these sides
  • 4Neutral venue (USA/Canada/Mexico) — no home advantage

Experimental model · Elo-based · Lower accuracy than club predictions

This prediction uses an Elo-based model without xG, possession or shots data. Accuracy is lower than our club football XGBoost model. Use for entertainment only.

Place Your Bet

18+ · Gamble Responsibly · Analysis only, not financial advice.